History of the SOM 3-Pt Rule

Time for more ‘Stache Talk! I don’t think I am revealing top secret information when I say I am a bit obsessed with 3-Pt shots. I want players to shoot threes in the proper ratio with the clearly inferior 2-Pt shot. I want them to maintain the accuracy they demonstrated in reality and which SOM worked so hard to simulate. Heck, I regained my love for the NBA and SOM when the Warriors exploded with their 3-Pt barrage in 2014-15. So it should be no surprise when I say that Chris’s recent Basketball Roster Post got me thinking about the Rodman Rule. Wait, no, it got me thinking about three-pointers! More specifically, it got me wondering about the history of SOM’s 3-Pt rule. So I looked at the roster sheets for every one of the “yellow box” seasons to determine when the rule changed. I found it interesting and hope you do too.

The 1980-81 roster sheet, labeled as “1981-82 STRAT-O-MATIC 23 TEAM BASKETBALL ROSTERS,” (as a side note, the roster sheets listed the SOM season, the season of the release, not the NBA season, which was the prior season, until the 1991-92 season) had no mention of the 3-Pt shot. The NBA introduced the long gun the season prior, and teams put up an average of 2.8 attempts per game that maiden season, led by the San Diego Clippers at 6.6. Shot attempts fell to 2 per game in 1980-81, with the Clippers again firing away at the highest clip (5 per game).

The 1981-82 roster sheet had one sentence relevant to the 3-Pt shot: “For realistic results, Campy Russell of the New York Knicks should only attempt one 3-point shot per game.” Why single out the 30-year old Russell? Well, he led the league in 3-Pt percentage, shooting 43.9% from deep. But it was on only 57 attempts in 77 games played, so less than an attempt per game. His card has him as a 2-7, 12 3-Pt shooter, pretty awesome! So you can see why he should be restricted. But then why not limit Andrew Toney, who took only two more 3-pt shots in the same number of games, and shot nearly as well at 42.4%? He is a 2-7 3-Pt shooter on his card. Doesn’t make sense why he is not restricted as well. The story gets sadder for Campy when you realize he missed the next two seasons with a knee injury then returned in 1984-85 to play just three final games for his original team, the Cavaliers. Campy wasn’t especially proficient in the seasons prior to 1981-82, so his accuracy that season may have just been a fluke, but we will never know.

The next season, 1982-83, SOM players are advised to limit both Trent Tucker, a legendary gunner from distance who shot 40.8% for his career on an average of 1.9 attempts per game (peaking at 3.7 attempts in 1988-89), and Kevin Grevey, who made a three on opening day of the 1979-80 season, to a single 3-Pt attempt per game. As for everyone else, bombs away apparently.

Teams averaged 2.4 3-Pt attempts per game in 1983-84 and SOM saw fit to implement the following instruction on the roster sheet: “Please note that all players except the following may only take one 3 pt. shot per game. The following players may take the amount found in parentheses below.” Ten players are listed, all allowed to take a pair of 3-pt shots except for Darrell Griffith, who was allowed a maximum of four. Dr. Dunkenstein led the league in 3-Pt accuracy as well as attempts, shooting 36.1% from behind the line. His card has him as a 2-6, 11 3-Pt shooter, which seems a little high but the team defense cards were much stingier against three-pointers back then.

1984-85 is notable for being the first of four consecutive seasons that Larry Bird shot 40% or better from downtown. He shot 42.7% on 1.6 attempts per game in 1984-85. His peak attempts per game in this run was in 1987-88 when he hoisted 3.1 per game, though he would attempt 3.3 in the 1990-91 campaign. The roster sheet has the same language as the prior season but now lists twenty-one players who may take more than one attempt per game but not more than the number listed. Griffith again is allowed the most attempts with four. Darrell averaged 3.3 attempts per game, so limiting him to four will probably allow him to shoot about the right amount over the course of an entire season. But the problem with the early SOM approach is that in real life players often took more than this limit and this rule doesn’t allow for the variation that actually happened. For example, Griffith launched six three-pointers on five different occasions that season and in three games he attempted seven 3-Pt shots. He failed to shoot a three-pointer in seven games.

Twenty-one players again are listed in the 1985-86 roster sheet as allowed to take more than one 3-Pt shot in a game. Three attempts is the most any player can take and that includes Larry Bird, World B. Free and Dale Ellis. Seven players shot better than 40% that season, led by Tucker and Craig Hodges, another 3-Pt legend, who each shot 45.1%. Each has a card reading of 2-7, 12. It is worth noting that Ernie Grunfeld, in his final season, is a 2-7 3-Pt shooter. He put up 61 attempts over 76 games, which was four times more attempts than he had ever previously had. Wannabe Grunfeld gunners would be saddened to learn he was not listed as an exception and thus was limited to a single attempt per contest. Teams were still only averaging 3.3 attempts per game.

The 1986-87 season saw teams increase their 3-Pt output to 4.7 attempts per game. Kiki Vandeweghe only attempted one per game but he shot a remarkable 48.1% from 3-Pt land. His SOM card has him as a just-as-remarkable 2-7, 10 marksman. Not a lick of defense or rebounding. I jest of course. I love peak mid-80s Kiki. The number of players listed on the roster sheet who can take more than one 3-Pt attempt per game grew to thrity-five. Bird, Ellis, Tucker and Hodges were among those who could launch up to three from deep.

The list of players who could take more than one 3-Pt shot had swollen to forty-two for the 1987-88 season, led by Danny Ainge and Michael Adams, each of whom could take up to five shots from distance. Hodges changed teams but was still deadly from downtown, connecting on 49.1% of his attempts, which SOM correlated to a 2-7, 12 rating.

The 1988-89 season is notable for (1) team 3-Pt attempts jumping from 5 per game to 6.6; (2) players who attempted 200 or more 3-Pt shots increasing from four the prior season to sixteen, including a CENTER Jack Sikma; AND, perhaps most importantly, (3) SOM changing the 3-Pt rule, though it is not clear from the roster sheet to what. If there was a 3-Pt system for this period, I don’t think it was the “super advanced” rule, which, based on the information on the roster sheets, did not appear until the 1990-91 season.

Okay, so here is what the 1988-89 roster sheet tells us: “When attempting a 3-Pt. Shot, if the dice roll is listed in 3-Pt. Replay – follow normal replay rules. Otherwise, 3-Pt. shooting rules apply.” That’s it. There is no longer anything about limiting to one attempt per game or listing players who are allowed to take more. And there are no numbers after each player so I don’t think the Automatic Three-Point Shot rule that would take place soon after, and which is still in place today, happened yet. So, SOM added replays to 3-Pt shooting, and took away the rule limiting attempts but replacing it with apparently nothing. I don’t know. I believe there may have been a change in the rule book but I don’t know that for a fact. I would love to hear from someone who knows.  For me, this is the dark age of SOM three-pointers.

Same for the 1989-90 season. The roster sheet just reiterates the replay statement and nothing else. Sikma came up one attempt short of 200. Sad days. In 2015-16 Steph Curry would MAKE 402 3-Pt shots, more than anyone but Michael Adams (432) ATTEMPTED in 1989-90.

An Enlightenment occurs for the 1990-91 season! Hallelujah! The roster sheet provides that “we are enclosing Super Advanced Rules for the basketball purist.” Each player on the roster sheet has a number after his name, which “refers to their three-point frequency. Please refer to automatic three-point shots found under Super Advanced Rules to use this system.”

I have a copy of what are entitled “SOM BASKETBALL SUPER-ADVANCED RULES.” I believe they are the rules referred to in the 1990-91 roster sheet. I say that because there is a chart entitled “ADDITIONAL THREE-POINT SHOTS ALLOWED CHART.” And the roster sheet from the 1991-92 season announces a “REPLACEMENT RULE FOR ‘ADDITIONAL THREE-POINT SHOTS ALLOWED’ CHART.”

Regardless, this is the rule with which all modern SOM players are familiar. All players are given a three-point frequency rating between 0 and 6, and when the FAC reads “outside shot only” you roll a six-sided die and if the result is less than or equal to the player’s frequency rating, he takes a 3-Pt shot. Furthermore, “[w]hen using this rule, teams may not take any other three-point shots except ‘half-court’ three-point shots (described above), and three-point attempts allowed on the ‘Additional Three-Point Shots Allowed Chart.’” The half-court shot is allowed under Super Advanced Rules when a team gets a defensive rebound on the last action card of a period and the Normal Control section lists a position and not a pass. That player heaves the ball, you roll the six-sided dice and if the total is 12 the shot is good. Personally, I have revised that rule a bit and combined it with the buzzer beater shot referred to in Chris’s Expert Rules, but let’s not get into that. The chart, which again is rescinded the following season, tells you when you may take unlimited 3-Pt shots based on how much time is left and how many points you are trailing by (though in final two minutes of the game you can take unlimited 3-Pt shots regardless of score).

The important thing here is that in 1990-91 SOM gave us the 3-Pt frequency rating and “outside shot only” rule which is still in effect today. I’m sure that rule made sense and adequately reflected 3-Pt frequency at that time. In the 1990-91 season, teams averaged 7.1 3-Pt attempts per game, with Denver leading the league at 12.9. But in 2018-19, the last full NBA season, teams averaged 32 3-Pt attempts per game, with Houston leading the Association with 45.4. Now, it should be noted that the vast majority of players were nowhere near being assigned a 3-Pt frequency rating of 6 in 1990-91. In fact, ten of the twenty-seven teams had ZERO players who were assigned a 6 and another eleven teams had only one such player. Only two teams, Portland and Indians, had three prolific 3-Pt shooters. In 2018-19, there are literally entire teams, such as Toronto and Atlanta, where every single player, including additional players, is assigned a 3-Pt frequency of 6. Still, that doesn’t allow for enough 3-Pt shots. Not in today’s game. The rule is and has been for quite a while outdated, and that explains why Chris came up with his own rule (detailed in his Determining Three-Point Shot Attempts post), why I am trying to improve on that rule slightly, and at least partially why I am obsessed with the long gun (thanks also to George Blaha, longtime Piston play-by-play announcer).

In 1991-92 we get the “REPLACEMENT RULE FOR ‘ADDITIONAL THREE-POINT SHOTS ALLOWED’ CHART.” This change allows for unlimited 3-Pt shots in the following circumstances: (1) any time a team trails by 10 or more points; (2) in the fourth quarter when a team trails by more points than there are minutes left (the example given is down by 6 with 5 minutes to go); and (3) in the final 2 minutes of the game, regardless of score. SOM notes that a player must “ALWAYS be positioned outside in order to take a three-point shot.” The replacement rule is very similar to what was on the chart, with only minor differences. I will note that the aforementioned Rodman Rule, which concerns rebounding and not 3-Pt shots, was also announced for this season.

There were no 3-Pt rule changes in the 1992-93 and 1993-94 seasons. Thunder Dan Majerle led the league with 503 3-Pt attempts and 6.3 attempts per game in 1993-94, connecting on 38.2% of them. His card  rating is  2-5, 9 with a replay at 10. In that same season Reggie Miller was 18^th in attempts per game with 3.7 but found the bottom of the net 42.1% of the time, more than anyone with more attempts per game. SOM graded him as a 2-6, 12 with a replay at 8 3-Pt shooter.

The 1994-95 season saw the NBA shorten the distance of the 3-Pt line from 23’9” (and 22’ in the corner) to a uniform 22’ all around. It is also saw SOM introduce the 3-Pt foul, which occurred on X-12 dice rolls. If you rolled X-12 on a 3-Pt attempt you would then “[r]oll the two white dice again and if a 7 occurs the basket is good (possible 4 point play). If any other number occurs attempt three free throws.” Whether it was the change in distance or the addition of a SOM 3-Pt foul, the result was clear – more 3-Pt shots were attempted than ever before! In the 1993-94 season teams averaged 9.9 3-Pt attempts per game while in 1994-95 the rate increased by more than 50% to 15.3 attempts per game.

From 1995-96 through 2011-12, no changes were made to SOM’s 3-Pt rules. It is interesting to note that in 2011-12 teams took an average of 18.4 3-Pt attempts per game. That is only 3 more attempts than occurred in 1993-94. That marginal increase seems crazy by today’s standards, influenced by advanced analytics and Steph Curry. It can partially be explained by the fact that the line was moved back after the 1996-97 season. With the reversion teams attempted an average of only 12.7 attempts per game in 1997-98. I also find it interesting that accuracy dipped only from 36% in  the final season of the shorter line to 34.6% the following season. Even more amazing to me, in 2018-19 the average 3-Pt shooter connected on 35.5% of his attempts. Players haven’t improved that much, if at all, from behind the line in the past twenty years, yet are attempting more. Analytics, man!

For the 2012-13 season, SOM made a change to the “REPLACEMENT RULE FOR ‘ADDITIONAL THREE-POINT SHOTS ALLOWED’ CHART.” They removed the third situation where additional 3-Pt shots were allowed. But they didn’t do it explicitly; they didn’t tell us they were doing it, they just included the rule in the roster sheet as they have since they introduced it but without the third situation. AND they made a mistake doing it, which they have not corrected. Let me include the new rule verbatim: “Additional three-point shots are allowed as follows (ignore  the chart, found in the Super-Advanced rules in the instruction book): (1) Any time a team trails by ten or more points they may take unlimited three-point shots; (2) In the last ten minutes of the game if a team is trailing by more points that time left (for example, down by six with five minutes to go), they may take unlimited three-point shots, regardless of the score.” Regardless of the score?!??!?! What?!?!?! That doesn’t make sense. The team had to be trailing by more points than there are minutes left. Whether they can take unlimited 3-Pt is dependent on the score.

The former rule had three unlimited three situations. The language for the second situation ended with “they may take unlimited three point shots.” Then the third situation was “(3) In the last two minutes of the game, both teams can take unlimited three-point shots, regardless of the score (emphasis added).” SOM took out the third situation but forgot to remove that final phrase. And to this day they have not fixed it. It is still there in the 2018-19 roster sheet. Is it possible they didn’t intend to remove the third situation at all? Sure, and a piece of evidence pointing in that direction is SOM's failure to include an "and" between the ONLY two situations where additional 3-Pt shots are allowed. If there are only two situations there should be an "and" between them. But if there are intended to be three, and somehow most of the third situation got chopped off in a copy and paste disaster, then not having an "and" between situations one and two is correct. Oh boy! I am not crazy about these unlimited situations to begin with, and I don’t see why there should be a rule for threes that is then ignored during the final two minutes of the games. So I think they intended to make a change and just inadvertently failed to delete that final phrase.

The most recent rule change, an excellent one, occurred in 2017-18. It replaces the X-12 rule. Now, when you roll an X on a 3-Pt attempt, you look to the shooter’s O column, and if the result is a foul, then the player was fouled attempting a 3-Pt shot. If the roll is any other result, the shot is missed. And, just like the X-12 rule, if the player was fouled you roll again to see if you get a 7 and a 4-point opportunity. I like this rule but I advise that for players who do not have a foul in their O column, that X-12 be a foul. I believe that there should be a possibility of a foul for every 3-Pt shooter.

That is the history of the SOM 3-Pt shot rule. And I think we should mostly scrap it. The "outside shot only" rule worked well for a time but no longer, not when teams are shooting three-pointers on more than one-third of their field goal attempts. In my next post I will detail my approach for remedying the situation.