The 3-Pt. Frequency ratings for the new 2020 card set are now available in the X Files section. I also included a document explaining how to use the ratings in game play. Enjoy!
Happy New Year Chris! So did you end up NOT taking into account 2-pt replays in the 3-Pt ratings? Other factors that I have considered include Dazzlers received (increase rating), 3-pt replays (increase rating), offensive rebounds (increase rating), with 2-Pt replays decreasing the rating. BUT I think that is TOO MUCH, incredibly complicated to figure out, and for the vast majority of players probably doesn't change the rating by more than a point or so. So I think going with the actual 3-pt frequency, multiplying by 20 and rounding to the nearest whole number is "good enough"
Happy New Year to you as well Derek! No, I did not take anything, other than straight percentage of three-point shots attempted (rounded to the nearest whole), into account when calculating the 3-Pt. Frequency ratings. As you have pointed out, the 3-Pt. Frequency ratings could be perfected for each player, based upon the criteria you listed, BUT the work needed to do so would be daunting, to say the least. 🥴 Therefore, I went with the "opportunity cost" method; a few hours of work to get pretty close vs. hundreds of hours of work, to get a perfect rating for every player.
I'll have an idea of just how "close enough" is, at the end of the 2020 Boston Celtics replay that I am currently doing. Daniel Theis, Brad Wanamaker, Grant Williams, and Semi Ojeleye, are the high Replay shooters on that team, who attempted between 96-127 three-point shots during the season. I will compare those player's replay attempts and percentages to their real life attempts and percentages, at the end of the replay, to see just how close "close enough" is.
Chris, is there a season which you think your system should start being used? In other words, is the SOM "outside shot only" system good enough up to a certain season?
Yes, starting with the 1995 season. My system doesn't scale well for the 81 - 94 seasons, where teams were attempting fewer than 10 three-point shots per game.
Thank you Chris !
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Chris! So did you end up NOT taking into account 2-pt replays in the 3-Pt ratings? Other factors that I have considered include Dazzlers received (increase rating), 3-pt replays (increase rating), offensive rebounds (increase rating), with 2-Pt replays decreasing the rating. BUT I think that is TOO MUCH, incredibly complicated to figure out, and for the vast majority of players probably doesn't change the rating by more than a point or so. So I think going with the actual 3-pt frequency, multiplying by 20 and rounding to the nearest whole number is "good enough"
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to you as well Derek! No, I did not take anything, other than straight percentage of three-point shots attempted (rounded to the nearest whole), into account when calculating the 3-Pt. Frequency ratings. As you have pointed out, the 3-Pt. Frequency ratings could be perfected for each player, based upon the criteria you listed, BUT the work needed to do so would be daunting, to say the least. 🥴 Therefore, I went with the "opportunity cost" method; a few hours of work to get pretty close vs. hundreds of hours of work, to get a perfect rating for every player.
ReplyDeleteI'll have an idea of just how "close enough" is, at the end of the 2020 Boston Celtics replay that I am currently doing. Daniel Theis, Brad Wanamaker, Grant Williams, and Semi Ojeleye, are the high Replay shooters on that team, who attempted between 96-127 three-point shots during the season. I will compare those player's replay attempts and percentages to their real life attempts and percentages, at the end of the replay, to see just how close "close enough" is.
Chris, is there a season which you think your system should start being used? In other words, is the SOM "outside shot only" system good enough up to a certain season?
ReplyDeleteYes, starting with the 1995 season. My system doesn't scale well for the 81 - 94 seasons, where teams were attempting fewer than 10 three-point shots per game.
ReplyDeleteOh wow, further back than I I thought!
ReplyDelete